Note: All specifications are from recent Jane's Information Group publications (Strategic Weapon Systems, Fighting Ships, Naval Weapon Systems, and All the World's Aircraft), except "Number Deployed" which is from the International Institute for Strategic Studies' Military Balance 1996-7. Disagreements are footnoted (with hypertext links), as are selected facts in the text. Unlike the confirmed nuclear powers, much of the information about the arsenals and potential delivery vehicles of the de facto nuclear powers is sketchy and speculative.

The entries are listed as follows:

• Land-Based Weapons
• Prithvi
• Agni
• Air-Based Weapons
• Jaguar (Shamsher)
• MiG-27 Flogger (Bahadur)
• Footnotes
• Link to Brief Summary of Israel's Possible Nuclear Delivery Vehicles

Prithvi

• Year Deployed: 1995¹
• Dimensions: 9.0 meters length, 1.1 meters diameter
• Weight: 4,000 kilograms
• Propulsion: Single stage liquid propellent
• Throw-weight: Army version - 1,000 kilograms Air Force version 500 kilograms
• Range: Army version - 150 kilometers, Air Force version 250 kilometers
• Guidance: Inertial
• Circular Error Probable: 250 meters
• Warhead: Single
• Yield: Conventional, chemical, or nuclear possible
• Locations: Kashmir and Punjab, on the border with Pakistan²
• Number Deployed: 25 Air Force missiles, 75 Army missiles³
• Primary Contractor: Bharat Dynamics

The Prithvi ("earth" in Indian) short-range missile began design in 1983, and was first test fired in February 1988. India may have had outside assistance in building the missile, as there are unconfirmed reports of a European company aiding development. The propulsion system is based on the Soviet SA-2 surface to air missile.⁴ The missile has a distinctive appearance, with four delta-shaped wings midway down the fuselage. It is based near the border with Pakistan, on eight wheeled Kolos Tetra trucks, which can raise the missile for launch.⁵

The Prithvi uses a volatile liquid fuel launch mode -- it must be fueled immediately prior to launch. Given this significant disadvantage, a solid-fueled version may be under development. While the CEP (circular error probable) is 250 meters, there have been some reports that the accuracy could be enhanced to an unheard of 10 meters, using maneuvering warheads. The fact that Indian scientists are using commercial U.S. Global Positioning System (GPS) satellite navigation data in their missile guidance lends credence to these claims, although whether India could actually accomplish such precision capability is uncertain.⁶

There are two versions of the Prithvi: an Air Force and an Army version, with 250 kilometers range and 150 range respectively (a 350 kilometer version is reportedly under development). The missile recently began deployment, with reports of 100 ordered by the Army for use as a tactical battlefield weapon. India claims it will be used with conventional warheads -- either fuel air or cluster munitions, although it is widely believed it will have a nuclear warhead. In fact, in January 1996, the U.S. asked India to refrain from deploying a nuclear-armed Prithvi because it would increase tensions on the subcontinent. Given the short range and planned deployment area, the target is clearly India's bitter rival, Pakistan. The Pakistani ambassador to the UN Conference on Disarmament said his nation would take "appropriate measures" if nuclear-tipped missiles were deployed near the border between the two nations ⁷

With its 1,000 kilogram warhead, the Prithvi could carry a nuclear weapon. However, given that the Indians have not tested a nuclear weapon save their first in 1974, developing a miniaturized warhead for a missile would be difficult. The conventional wisdom until recently has been that without nuclear testing data to aid in the engineering process, India would not be able to produce a small ballistic missile warhead. However that assessment has begun to change, and it is likely that given considerable effort, the technological warhead miniaturization problem can be overcome.

Agni

• Year Deployed: Testing
• Dimensions: 18.4 meters length, 1.3 meters diameter
• Weight: 14,000 kilograms⁸
• Propulsion: 1st stage -- solid propellent, 2nd stage -- liquid propellent
• Throw-weight: 1,000 kilograms
• Range: 2,500 kilometers⁹
• Guidance: Inertial with terminal guidance
• Circular Error Probable: Unknown
• Warhead: Single
• Yield: Conventional, chemical, or nuclear possible
• Locations: Unknown
• Number Deployed: Unknown
• Primary Contractor: Indian Defense Research and Development Laboratory

The Agni ("fire" in Indian) represents a much more ambitious project compared to the Prithvi. It is a full fledged intermediate-ranged missile which began development in 1979. It has a curious mixture of propellents in its two stages, with the first stage, copied from the SLV-3 space launch vehicle, using solid propellent. The second stage is liquid fueled, using a shortened Prithvi motor system. The inertial guidance is probably an upgraded form of that used on the Prithvi.

The Indians have stated the Agni will not be equipped with a nuclear warhead. However, given China's lack of an anti-ballistic missile system and ability to hit Bejing, such a missile would be a tempting deterrent to India's rival to the north. Even if the Indians did not develop a nuclear warhead, the Chinese would know that they probably could do so. According to the CIA, India is currently working on a lightweight nuclear warhead for the Agni -- the technological problems are difficult, but not insurmountable.¹⁰ If the Agni does not have a nuclear warhead, it might be fitted with a fuel-air explosive (FAE), which -- relative to conventional weapons -- can do great damage. They might also be fitted with chemical weapons, or a form of terminal guidance if high explosives were used.¹¹

The first Agni was tested in 1989, generating significant pressure from the West not to deploy the system. In 1994, perhaps partially due to U.S. pressure, the Indians claimed the Agni was only a technology demonstrator program rather than a full-fledged weapon, and that they would not be deployed. Sources within the Indian Defence Research & Development Organisation (DRDO) claim existing test missiles could be operational in three months if the decision were made to do so.

There folllowed official statements that the Agni would indeed be deployed, but that latest word on the program is that it is indeed dead. The Indian Defense Ministry announced on December 5, 1996, that the Agni "technology demonstration" program was over. The missiles could be deployed given the decision to do so based on the security situation, but India had not made this decision. This announcement came only days after the state visit of Chinese President Jiang Zemin -- the country at whom the Agni would clearly be targeted.¹² If the Indians did decide to deploy, several more tests would probably be necessary before production could begin, and the operational date would probably be shortly after 2000.¹³

There have been rumors that India plans to go even further in its missile program and develop an ICBM (called the Surya), using its Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV) and its development experience with the Agni to build upon. It is estimated that if the PSLV were modified and used as an ICBM, it would have a range of 8,000 kilometers. The Indian Geosynchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle (GSLV), expected for launch in 1997-98, could have a range of 14,000 kilometers if used as an ICBM -- on par with the U.S. and Russian missiles, and capable of striking the United States.¹⁴

The Pentagon claims, "India has already built guidance sets and warheads, key components needed to convert an SLV (space launch vehicle) into a ballistic missile."¹⁵ This little known fact of India's incipient ballistic missile capability has little immediate significance. However, it could be important should the security climate change for the worse, particularly in the event of increased U.S.-Indian tensions.

Air-Based Weapons

Jaguar (Shamsher)

• Year Deployed: Unknown
• Dimensions: 16.83 meters length, 4.89 meters height, 8.69 meters wingspan
• Weight: empty - 7,000 kilograms, maximum takeoff - 16,700 kilograms
• Propulsion: Two Rolls Royce Turbomeca Adour Mk 811 turbofans
• Range: 850 kilometers¹⁶
• Speed: Mach 1.5
• Maximum Loadout: 4,750 kilograms¹⁷
• Weapon Load: Various conventional air-to-air and air-to-ground munitions
• Locations: Squadron Nos. 5, 14, 16, 27 and No. 6 (antishipping)
• Number Deployed: 97 aircraft
• Primary Contractor: Hal, Bangalore Complex

The Jaguar, referred to by the Indians as the Shamsher (Assault Sword), is a single seat attack aircraft. The original batch was purchased from the British, the aircraft were subsequently assembled in India, and finally were built in India under license. The aircraft has an integrated attack/navigation system called DARIN (display attack and ranging inertial navigation) as well as other comparatively advanced avionic and electronic countermeasures gear.¹⁸

The Jaguar is one of India's most capable ground attack aircraft. As such, it is one of the primary candidates to carry India's limited number of nuclear weapons. Although little is known about India's nuclear weapon infrastructure, it is almost certain that if any are weaponized, they are in the form of nuclear gravity bombs.

MiG-27 Flogger M (Bahadur)

• Year Deployed: 1986
• Dimensions: 17.07 meters length, 5.00 meters height
• Weight: maximum takeoff - 18,000 kilograms
• Propulsion: One Soyuz (Turmansky) R-29B-300 turbojet
• Range: (low altitude) 390 kilometers
• Speed: Mach 1.7
• Maximum Loadout: Two 500 kilogram bombs, various other munitions (Russian version can carry tactical nuclear weapons)
• Weapon Load: 4,000 kilograms¹⁹
• Yield: Unknown, could carry nuclear weapon
• Locations: Squadron Nos. 2, 9, 18, 22, 31, and 222.
• Number Deployed: 148
• Primary Contractor: Hal, Kanpur Division

The MiG-27 Flogger M (corresponding to the Russian MiG-27 Flogger-J) is a single-seat attack fighter known by the Indians as the Bahandur (Valiant). The MiG-27M has variable sweep wings, and an integrated attack/navigation system. It was designed by the Soviet Union and began entering service with the U.S.S.R. in the late 1970s. Its design was based on the MiG-23B Flogger, but had enhanced engines and attack/navigation system. India was licensed by the Soviets to produce the aircraft in 1984, and they entered service in 1986. A mid-life avionics upgrade for the MiG-27Ms is being considered.²⁰

Since the Russian version can carry tactical nuclear weapons, the possibility that the Indian MiG-27M could potentially be tasked with carrying Indian gravity bombs must be considered. The Western Jaguar, with its longer range and presumably more sophisticated electronics would seem to be the more likely candidate for this role, however. India has other attack aircraft, such as the MiG-23 Flogger, but it is most likely that their few nuclear weapons would deployed on their best planes -- either the MiG-27s or Jaguars.

FOOTNOTES:

¹ Centre for Defence and International Security Studies, Missile Threats and Responses (internet web site - http://www.cdiss.org/countrya.htm#INDIA).

² Prithvi deployment of 100 listed in Center for Nonproliferation Studies, "Ballistic Missile Developments" Nonproliferation Review (Winter 1996), p. 200. Deployment only listed as 3-5 launchers in International Institute for Strategic Studies, Military Balance 1996-7 (London: Oxford University Press, 1996), p. 160.

³ CDISS, Missile Threats and Responses (http://www.cdiss.org/countrya.htm#INDIA).

⁴ Office of the Secretary of Defense, Proliferation: Threat and Response (April 1996), p. 38.

⁵ "Prithvi," Jane's Strategic Weapon Systems (London: Jane's Information Group, 1990).

⁶ CDISS, Missile Threat and Response (http://www.cdiss.org/countrya.htm#INDIA).

⁷ CNS, Nonproliferation Review (Spring-Summer, 1996), pp. 141, 150 and (Winter 1996), p. 170.

⁸ Agni weight listed as 17,300 kilograms in CNS, Nonproliferation Review (Winter 1996), p. 200.

⁹ Agni range listed as 1,500-2,500 kilometers in CNS, Nonproliferation Review, (Winter 1996), p. 200.

¹⁰ CNS, Nonproliferation Review (Winter 1996), p. 169.

¹¹ "Agni." Jane's Strategic Weapon Systems.

¹² CDISS, Missile Threats and Responses (http://www.cdiss.org/96dec1.htm).

¹³ CDISS, Missile Threats and Responses(http://www.cdiss.org/countrya.htm#INDIA).

¹⁴ CDISS, Missile Threats and Responses(http://www.cdiss.org/smt1e.htm#SA).

¹⁵ OSD, Proliferation: Threat and Response, p. 38.

¹⁶ Jaguar range listed for high profile in IISS, Military Balance, 1995-6, p. 308, also listed as 1,408 kilometers (with external fuel, hi-lo-hi) in Jane's All the World's Aircraft 1989-90 (London: Jane's Information Group, 1989), p 121.

¹⁷ IISS, Military Balance, 1995-6, p. 308.

¹⁸ Jane's All the World's Aircraft, p. 121.

¹⁹ Payload listed as 4,500 kilograms in IISS, Military Balance, 1995-6, p. 310.

²⁰ Jane's All the World's Aircraft, 1994-5, pp. 124, 326.

Compiled by Ted Flaherty
20 December 1996
updated 2 January 1997