U.S. eyes Pakistan, former Soviet Union as likely sources of weapons-grade
material.
By Brad Knickerbocker
Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor
WASHINGTON - As the story goes, Osama bin Laden offered criminals in
Chechnya $30 million and two tons of opium in return for 20 Russian nuclear
warheads.
The chilling account, contained in a 1999 Arab-language news report, may be
apocryphal. But what is certain is that for most of the 1990s, Mr. bin
Laden has been trying to get materials to make a nuclear bomb. Acquiring
weapons of mass destruction, he has said, is a "religious duty" necessary
"to terrorize the enemies of God." Some of his associates (now in prison or
witness-protection programs) have recounted efforts to obtain weapons-grade
uranium or plutonium.
Today, as the United States bombs terrorist sites and other targets in
Afghanistan, the prospect of a nuclear terrorist attack looms larger as a
domestic security concern. The likelihood of such an attack, government
officials and experts say, may be small - but the possible consequences are
too horrific to ignore.
Among the major concerns:
• The political instability of Pakistan, a nuclear power in the region that
- more so than Russia and former Soviet states - could be Mr. bin Laden's
source of nuclear materials. The Pakistani intelligence service used to
work closely with Afghanistan's ruling Taliban regime, and many in Pakistan
(including, perhaps, military and intelligence sources) support the Taliban
and bin Laden. Last week, Pakistan detained for questioning two of its
former senior nuclear-weapons scientists - men who have expressed sympathy
with the Taliban cause.
• Knowledge that with relatively little radioactive material - even
low-level waste from a power plant or medical facility - terrorists could
construct a "dirty bomb" using simple explosives rather than the more
sophisticated and difficult-to-build nuclear weapons. Such devices, hidden
in a truck or ship-borne cargo container, could inflict considerable
casualties followed by widespread radiation poisoning.
• Vulnerability of 10 major nuclear-weapons plants in the U.S., several of
which are near major cities. In mock attacks, the "terrorists" were able to
acquire weapons-grade nuclear materials or otherwise achieve their goals in
more than half the cases.
In the face of such threats, the U.S. is considering several options.
These include strengthening nuclear-nonproliferation treaties, increasing
security at U.S. nuclear-weapons facilities, and buying Russia's leftover
nuclear materials. More immediately, some experts suggest preparing U.S.
Special Operations Forces to unilaterally disable or seize Pakistan's
nuclear weapons. (In the New Yorker magazine this week, investigative
reporter Seymour Hersh writes that U.S. military and intelligence agents are
training with an Israeli special-operations unit for such a mission.)
In addition, several U.S. lawmakers have said America should be prepared to
use its tactical nuclear weapons to prevent or respond to another domestic
terrorist attack. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld - repeating
long-standing U.S. military doctrine - has not ruled that out.
While the former Soviet Union has been a top concern - officials there
can't account for all nuclear-weapons items, and many now-jobless nuclear
scientists may be susceptible to bribery - much of the focus is now on
Pakistan.
"Pakistan's military government is walking a tightrope between pressure
from the Bush administration on one side and anti-American Islamic
militants on the other," says Bruce Blair, president of the Center for Defense Information here. "Growing street opposition from the latter could
certainly destabilize or even topple the regime, and in the midst of such
dissolution, the weakening of nuclear security would inevitably occur."
"The ranks of government and military personnel are also fairly riddled
with sympathizers of the radical Islamic faction, posing a distinct risk of
insiders colluding to spirit away a bomb or two for bin Laden and other
terrorists," says Dr. Blair, a former U.S. Air Force nuclear-missile launch
control officer.
Intelligence sources believe that Pakistan has enough plutonium and
weapons-grade enriched uranium to make 30 to 50 nuclear bombs or warheads.
"Whether or not all of Pakistan's nuclear explosive material has been
converted to nuclear weapons is unknown, leaving the possibility that many
kilograms of bulk material may be poorly protected," warns the Institute
for Science and International Security. "Security forces at storage sites
may be unable to thwart a determined attack by extremist groups allied with
bin Laden or the Taliban, particularly if even a small number of guards are
sympathetic to the Islamic fundamentalist cause. In the extreme case -
should extremists take over the Pakistani government - control over
Pakistan's nuclear explosive materials and weapons could be lost
irretrievably."
Testimony in the trial of men charged with the 1998 attacks on U.S. embassies
in Kenya and Tanzania revealed that bin Laden associates in Sudan may have
tried to obtain uranium for a radiological weapon - material that may have
originated in South Africa.
Meanwhile, concern for the safety of U.S. nuclear-weapons plants is mounting.
A recent report by the Project on Government Oversight warned of "serious
security flaws at nuclear- weapons facilities around the country." "When
our security efforts do not protect our weapons-grade nuclear materials
against over half the mock terrorist attacks, it is well past time for a
reassessment," says Danielle Brian of the watchdog group.
Rep. Christopher Shays (R) of Connecticut, chairman of the House National
Security Subcommittee, is planning to investigate. "In this critical
environment," he says, "it is important for the Department of Energy [which
oversees the U.S. nuclear-weapons program] to assure the integrity of basic
security measures for the protection of nuclear-weapon facilities ...
against both internal and external threats."
First appeared in the Christian Science Monitor Oct. 30, 2001
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